My Porfolio 2022 going forward?

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This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation. Past performance is not always indicative of future returns. I may or may not own stocks listed

Now that I got that out of the way

Synopsis

I am a quant/mechanical investor at heart. I no longer have the time to do quant work or stock picking. Sad to say, I am going the ETF route. Something safe and diverified. I like the concept of not looking at my portfolio and have it just work.

I have had a few choices:

  • Vanguard Target Retirement 2030 Fund (VTHRX)
  • Some other Targe Date fund
  • Some combos of ETFs
  • Continue to overthing or stess out buying individual stocks

What is good about the latter is that you can decide your own allocation. Because of my situation, I do not need to be in bonds at all. the rule of 120 or 100 does not apply. My current retirement fund functions as such.

In spite of my age. a 100/0 or 90/10 stock/bond ration is acceptable

For my main profolio, I am going for a 90/10 stock/bond and 60/40 US/International. I would prefer a home bias, but from what I read, going forward, the United States might not be all that.

Side note: Most US firms are really international/multinational. The benefit of US stocks is the SEC and regulators.

Now for a quick look at the plan.

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Acorns Backtest

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This backtest is flawed and oversimplified. Please do your own due diligenceThis backtest is flawed and oversimplified. Please do your own due diligence
This material is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research or investment advice, and is not a recommendation. Past performance is not always indicative of future returns. I may or may not own stocks listed

This is a repost of an old article that I did as an Acorns backtest. Only difference is that that time I did it in RStudio and exported it out as html. My static blog generator under Windows Linux Subsystem does not like it. This is a port over to Jupyter Notebook which Nicola natively supports.

Synopsis

I have been an investor in Acorns since around September 2017. I learned about Acorns as a “Millenial savings account.” I did a “why not” investing. Plus I like squirreling away money that is not visible to me or others.

I had chosen the “Aggressive Portfolio” instead of the recommended “Conservative Portfolio.” The reason was that I was adviced long ago that my Social Security and Pension was my bond fund.

Purpose of this post is to backtest the Acorns investment style in a reproducible way reasonably. I will admit that the backtest is flawed and oversimplified. Acorns rebalances every time you add money Acorns. Also, Acorns does a full rebalance every quarter. I will not capture tax implications. The starting date will be from January 1st, 2011 till the time of this post. The reason is that the first data for VOO is September 2010. I hope that this will have value for you.

  • Large Company - VOO
  • Small Company - VB
  • Developed Market - VEA
  • Emerging Market - VWO
  • Real Estate - VNQ
  • Corporate Bond - LQD
  • Government Bond - SHY
  • Spiders - SPY benchmark.
  • ^IRX - 13 WEEK TREASURY BILL as risk free rate

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Very short bike ride (flat)

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Wanted to test out combining a fit file from my Edge 1030 Plus with my Gopro Hero 9 Black in Telemetry Overlay. Unfortunately got a thorn in my tire that made the trip a little short. This is from the first part of the ride before I had to do road side innertube change.

Gotta admit, it is cool software.

Blow-Through Jibe

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Although this is for Melges 24, I feel that it applies to J/70s. This type of jibe gives you a tactical advantage over your competitors that have chosen their sets at the beginning of the race.

Wet Wednesday Fun Race Oct 20, 21 on j70 Escape

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Sail Log

Date

October 20, 2021

Vessel Name/Type/Model

Escape/ J/70

Course/Sea Miles

Sailed dock to dock: 9.8 nm

Course: D5 (shortened.

Notes

Good start. Held our own. Learned how to sail fast in heavy wind (at start) with a light crew. Got 2nd!

Video/Pictures

Sail Trace (Strava)

Few thoughts, blunders, lessons on IT

(updated )

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I started my IT career around 1995 with a C Programming class. I found out that I was good at it. My first real IT job was as a Laboratory Teaching Assistant for Computer Science [1]. Since then, I have been a Network Manager for a local ISP, Senior Systems Administrator [2], Network Specialist, and now an Information Systems Specialist [3]

Some of my favorite blunders (we learn from our mistakes):

  • On my first day on the job that I was all by myself as a Laboratory Teaching Assistant, I crashed the main VMS server. No one could log in. I worked for hours off the clock to get it going. I thought I was optimizing it.

  • I have bricked an Ascend Terminal Server. I had to go on-site thirty miles away and Ascend support got it going through a 9600 baud modem to upload the thin firmware first. Then, I was able to upload the fat firmware to get it going. Thin load only works on the local network.

  • I stopped work at an S&P500 company's design centers. An Engineer asked me not to send a section of Open-Source directory Branch, and I was tired and was at the end of the shift. I made an error in the rsync config. I ended up deleting all directories overnight for the company's open-source libraries. It took three to four days to reupload the libraries to the design centers over the corporate wan.

  • I used to compile my open-source code. Most distributions are way out of date, too many, or not suitable options. I took down a mail server because of cascading issues with MySQL and OpenSSL updates (change in .so files).

Some things that tweaked my mind.

  • Many times my job was to keep old equipment alive. Computers that were ten years old were used to create, test technology that did not come to market for another five to ten years into the future.

  • COBOL, Fortran is still very much alive.

  • Batch processing drives most real-time computing: If you have a background task that is completed very fast, most people cannot tell.

Over the years, I learned a few lessons.

  • Document both in code and in a document system. You will have to remember what you did over six months ago.

  • Do not get enamored with the hottest computer language or software. Use the tool that gets the job done and what the company uses. Use tools that leverage your workmate's knowledge. Next time you go on a vacation or in a middle of an important project, your workmates can help you.

  • Revision control and backups is your friend.

  • Tell some else what you are doing. Don't work in the dark.

  • Sometimes, there are just no points for style. If you take a month to accomplish something, no matter how cool, if the job was needed in a week, for the most part, who cares. You did not get your job done.

  • If you make a mistake, confess your sins immediately. Then explain how you are going to get it fixed.

  • There has to be a balance between performance and stability. A system that is too slow is unusable. At the same point, a system that is very face and not stable is worse.

  • The best computer language is what is used at your workplace. It is fine to learn new stuff at home, but you cannot be the odd man out.

  • Uptime is important.

  • Monitor. You want to know when things go wrong before your users report problems.

The above list is not all-inclusive, and some lessons I learned the hard way.

Heading, Course, and Bearing

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Heading, Course, and Bearing

This post is made with the bias of a small sailboat coastal sailor. Its main purpose is a reference for me. Your nautical milage will vary.

I use a Garmin GPSMAP86 for electronic navigation on my J70 Escape. Getting caught in the fog off the coast of Santa Barbara has taught me that it is essential to have a GPS on board that is not dependent on externalities such as downloading maps as you go. Also, having a unit that allows me to set waypoints from a web page and having satellite communications is a big plus.

As a first-time user, Course and Bearing get confusing, so here are some definitions.

Heading

Heading is the direction that your bow is pointing and sailing towards. It different than course over ground (COG), which takes into consideration such as current and slippage. It is the actual

Bearing

Bearing is the direction to your destination. As a sailor, it is the direction to a course mark or destination. This changes if you are not sailing towards your destination. This is important to me because it gives me a line-of-sight direction to where I want to go.

Course

Course is good, but not too useful as a small boat sailor/racer. It is the direction of a vector or line from one waypoint to another. So, if you round a mark, it gives you the direction to your next mark. It is quite easy to get off course in open water sailing.